Variance and Bankroll Management: The Keys to Poker Survival

24 January 2026

Variance and Bankroll Management: The Keys to Poker Survival

Introduction

In poker, even the best players in the world can endure long losing streaks. This isn't because they are playing poorly, but because of a fundamental element of the game: variance. Understanding variance and adapting your Bankroll Management (BRM) is essential to survive in the long run and avoid tilt, financial stress, or going broke.

In this article, we will simply explain what variance is, why it is inevitable, and how good bankroll management allows you to absorb it.

1. What is variance in poker?

Variance represents the natural fluctuations of results in the short and medium term, independent of skill level. Even if you consistently make the best decisions (EV+), the cards may decide otherwise over thousands of hands.

2. Why variance is stronger than we think

Many players underestimate the violence of potential swings.

Factors that amplify variance:

  • Formats (MTT, Spin & Go, Expresso)
  • Large fields
  • Turbo / Hyper-turbo structures
  • High-variance formats (KO / Mystery / Space KO)
  • Your specific playing style

3. EV, Real Results, and the Short-Term Illusion

It is essential to distinguish between :

  • EV (Expected Value): What you should win on average.
  • Real Results: What you actually win.
  • ROI: Return on Investment.

In the short term, results can be very far from EV. ➡️ A winning player can lose money for months. ➡️ A losing player can "run good" and believe they are a winner.

Simulations To illustrate my point, I ran a simulation on Primedope.com. This site allows you to simulate winnings over X number of tournaments based on your ROI. — Scenario: A winning player at ABI $30 with a 25% ROI over 1000 tournaments (avg 1200 players, 12.5% ITM).

What does this show? Over 1000 tournaments, with these stats, you still have a more than 30% chance of finishing down and a 5% chance of finishing -$10k.

Variance is massive in large fields and small sample sizes. This is why volume is crucial to reduce it! I encourage you to run your own simulations on their site. Even though knowing your exact ROI is difficult, it gives you a realistic idea of what variance truly is.

4. Bankroll Management: Your Anti-Variance Insurance

our bankroll is your survival tool. Good BRM allows you to continue playing your A-game even during the worst periods.

Basic Principles:

  • Never play with money needed for your daily life.
  • Adapt your limits to the size of your bankroll.
  • Move down in stakes without ego if necessary.

6. The Mental Impact of Variance

Variance is not just financial; it is also psychological.

Possible consequences:

  • Tilt
  • Loss of confidence
  • Overplay / spew or playing too passively
  • Bad decisions outside of poker

Having an adapted bankroll allows you to:

  • Play relaxed.
  • Stick to your strategy.
  • Focus on the quality of decisions.
  • Not be emotionally impacted by downswings.

7. Why track your bankroll with Pokmanager

Proper tracking allows you to:

  • Visualize your swings.
  • Compare real results vs. EV.
  • Identify high-risk periods.
  • Make better decisions regarding moving up or down limits.

Pokmanager helps you objectify variance rather than suffering from it emotionally.

Conclusion

Variance is inevitable, sometimes brutal, and sometimes unfair.

👉 What makes the difference between a player who lasts and a player who goes broke is not the "run," but:

  • Understanding variance.
  • Rigorous bankroll management.
  • Constant mental discipline.
  • High volume of play.

Accept variance, respect your bankroll, and subscribe to Pokmanager !

Ritto